Welcome everybody to a new discussion post. Rusty is back!. This one in particulary will address the question of who are the real contender for this year tittle and who might be the last team standing. We are not even trying to predict the West but we'll discuss it. Enjoy
Morgan: We'll start with the East. The top seed, the Celtics. How 'bout this guys?
Rusty: Definitely a contender and they are my favorites to win the Eastern Conference. The only thing that could derrail this team is a major injury to any of their so called Big Three.
M: Well yeah. Any team that suffers an injury to any of their top three players will be on trouble.
I'm with you they are the team to beat in the East but they haven't face any real pressure they came out blazing of the gates and they have been the number one team since then. They are a veteran team and the leadership is clearly there but it could interesting to see this team's response to adversity in a critical game.
R: Also they are not that deep. If Garnett or Pierce miss considerable time against the Pistons or whoever cames out of the West this team can't replace their production. No for more than a couple of games.
M: Do you trust Doc Rivers?
R: I hope that at this point he has his team figured it out.Don't you think?
M: Yeah, but do you trust him?
R: I trust his trust on his veteran players
M: Now the Pistons. They always need to feel disrespected to play their best ball. Boston's success may give him that fire.
R: That's being their "mojo" from day 1. They also have that chip in the shoulder for being eliminated by a one man team last season. For my money, they are the best Pistons team since winning the championship in 2004.
M: They are a lock to reach the Conference Finals. Now, can Boston survive the one man team?
R: Everybody saw what Lebron James did to the Pistons and everybody saw what the Spurs did to James. Boston is a better defensive team that the Detroit Pistons a year ago they won't let James take over the entire series. The Cavaliers could win a game or two.
M: Well, now argue there. You get the feeling that KG is going to will his way to the conference finals. Wrapping up the East, Boston or Detroit?
R: The Boston Celtics specially if the Lakers reach the Western conference Finals. The league won't let a Lakers- Celtics finals slip away.
M: I'm impress, you have change Rusty! This will be a great seven game series and most of the games will come down to the final play specially with two defensive oriented teams. Given that Detroit have more "clutch" players I'm given this series to the Pistons
R: If it comes to the last shot Detroit does have a better chance to represent the East in the NBA Finals
M: Well this part went rather smoodly -more smooth that I'd want for a discussion post- Let's go to the fun part: the West. Your number one contender, Rusty?
R: I'm a old school guy so I'm going to the old school team: the San Antonio Spurs. They are the most solid team , they have the experience and for whatever reason they always have that lucky bounce of the ball going their way
M: I'm torn between the top three teams: Spurs, Lakers and Hornets. San Antonio have everything that you just said and also I'm waiting for the chance for Manu to take over this playoffs. If that happens and the Spurs won by the hand of Manu will be the best story for this team.
For the Lakers I'm also looking forward to see how Kobe response to the level of play in the West. If he and Bynum and Gasol are healthy they are the favorites in my book. But that's a big if. The Hornets will make noise, somehow. They can compete with anybody their only weakness is that their shooters are rather streaky but when you have a point guard like Chris Paul anything can happen.
R: Apparently Bynum will be back but I don't think he will be in shape to handle the bigs in the West, whatever the matchups are. The Lakers are a great team but if they run into the Spurs their run will be over... UNLESS... they league decides otherwise
M: You are pushing that in every line. Come on, come clean...
R: What?
M: A'right. Do you think the league is fixing the playoffs?
R: No, Morgan. I'll never say that. It will be very stupid for this league to go out and fix the outcome of the entire championship.There's a huge difference between fixing the all tournament and helping or giving a team a better shot at winning a game. That's what the NBA does
M: I just did a little homework for you. Here and here.
I don't know if the Lakers' chances are ridding in Bynum's shoulders. Gasol is a pretty good matchup against any big he can't defend but he's there, catch my drift?. Besides offensively he's a handful.
R: Yeah, but defense wins playoff games. They are still a good defensive team but if other team goes on a isolation against Gasol over and over again they could be in trouble
M: That's unlukely.There's help defense, you know?
R: There's open three point shooter, you know?
M: Fine, Fine. How about the Hornets?
R: I love Chris Paul. He's been the best point guard hands down. West and Chandler are having great season thanks to Paul at some degree. My only concern with this team is what happen whe defensive schemes take West and Chandler out of the game or at least keeping them in check. Would Paul brings them back?
M: That's also my issue with this guys, sort of. Can they survive the playoffs and everything that comes along? Is Paul that good?
R: Right now, he's not. They can defeat younger teams like Utah, Denver or Golden State. Their road ends in San Antonio or LA
M:Who else is a contender here?
R: Everybody in the top seven
M:For my own appreciation if Utah can handle their way on the road in a more consistent way they can also be a contender. Williams and Boozer are just too good, they have the shooters, they have the defense and they ceitanly have the coach
R: Utah is going to start on the road if the loose both games is over for them.
M: They are tough enough to recover from that, they bounced back last year against the Rockets even winning game 7 at Houston. I know is all about the matchups but it is easier for them to win in the road that the other team winning at Utah.
R: They will need to drow a mentally softer team like Dallas or Houston. Even there is Tracy McGrady or Josh Howard or any fast swing player have a GREAT series they can't matchup. Kirilenko and their entire team defense has taken a step back.
M: I don't think Utah can be discarded that easily. DWill and Boozer bring it night in and night out. Every single night
R: Then explain me their road record
M: The other guys don't follow the trend
R: Exactly! This is a team sport. They can't win with just two guy playing their heart out. Maybe against a team with a weaker "fire" but no against a hungry team where everybody pulls for one goal
M: Man, that was poetic!. You mention the Mavs as a good matchup for Utah. Are they even going to be there?
R: Dallas is not a good matchup for anybody not if Nowitzki comes back
healthy. I need to believe this guys can win with a point guard like Jason Kidd. If they are left behind there's something wrong on the team and I'll point my finger to Nowitzki
M: Not to Avery?
R: Do you believe all the talk about "overcoaching" ?
M: I believe that this team is not build to take advantage of Kidd's skills. He's a great leader and that's always welcome but where he's great is at running the fast break and this is not a running team. They are not going to trade Nowitzki they'll better trade Kidd for a point guar who can shoot.
R: This is Nowitzki's team- actually is Cuban's first and Avery's Second - but Dirk Nowitzki is the leader on paper and he needs to step up. He has to be the guy who goes to his coach and said that things need to change, set plays need to change. His voice has to be heard
M: That's a good point by I still think that even with a healthy Nowitzki they will be out in the first round
R: If Dirk Nowitzki is healthy they can advance. I'm insist it's all about matchups
M: We still haven't talk about two similiar teams: Nuggets and Warriors. High ofensive teams featuring powerful scorers but they ain't that great at stopping the other team. Denver can be very, very dangerous. Specially now that KMart has his bounce back as he gives them a solid third option and another great defender near the basket. If they get a great stretch from KMart and Camby this team is a contender.
R: You convinced me rather quickly there! I agree with the Denver statement they could be very well a contender this year. They have one of the best starting lineups a decent bench and defensive big guys. Their minus are that they aren't commited to defense and their chemistry could improve. I don't think they could win it all but they are a dangerous team and they just need a good run which they are perfectly capable of doing
M: There a five great defensive teams right now in contention (Spurs, Lakers, Rockets, Pistons and Celtics) and you could make the case for Phoenix. Denver push ends as soon as they face any of those teams. As for the Warriors, let me tell you I've seen some 5 o 6 Warriors' games in the past month and their worst enemy is themselves. Is not only that they don't defend and their most played setplay is "RUN". They take shots that would shock you, seriously, and that's how Nellieball is played but they go into stretches where they can't buy a basket and that's when they lost everything. There's no difference between the Warriors leading by 20 and the Warriors loosing by 10
R: Well you look for the consistency in your team, Morgan. Take a look a the Spurs. There's no difference between the Spurs leading by 20 and the Spurs loosing by 10. You live and die by your style of play. What doesn't work for Golden State is that theirs is so frentic that sometimes, as you said, it works against them
M:22 straight wins and we haven't talk about them. I say Houston goes as far as McGrady takes them and if history taught us anything...
R: You write it quite accurate in a previus post. Their role players specially Rafer Alston played the best basketball of their careers during that streak. I don't see that happening again in the playoffs
M: They still are a good defensive team and you know what people say "defense wins championships"
R: They still would need some offense to back it up.
M: Good point. And some heart and desire will be nice
R: That would be swell!
M: Swell? WTF?
R: I thought you will like that
M: Yeah, it made my day.....Last but no least. Shaquille O'neal and the Phoenix Suns. If they keep playing the way they are right now they become my second pick to get out of the West. Shaq is playing decent ball, Amare is unstoppable and amazingly Nash is the one who, when they had that 1 -6 stretch or something, was the "weakest link" but now his playing at the level he's used to perform
R: Nash is not as good as a previous years by just a little bit. All the role players are playing subpars season in comparision with last year specially Leandro Barbosa. They seem a little bit in the same boat as the Denver Nuggets but with a stronguer psique. They have big guys that can't prevent penetrations - although not as good as Martin and Camby in Denver - and they have a high scoring mentality. This is the hardest team for me to read because the line between being a contender and being out in the first round is so thin for them.
M: Grant Hill is the key for them. If he's able to give them a little bit of what Marion gave them specially defense to stop the array of wing players in the West they have a shot. If Manu, Deron Williams, Kobe, TMac, Paul,Melo ,etc. start getting in the paint and putting Amare and Shaq in fou trouble that's it for them. As you said, they don't longer had the 3 point assault to take them out of trouble.
R: With the trade they gain more control of the boards. That added to Steve Nash gives them control of the flow of the game that's huge in the playoffs. But they lost that defensive advantage Marion gave them that covered for Nash and Stoudemire defensive shortcomings. Once again it depends on the matchups
To wrap it out, who do think is going to end up as the 9th team?
M: Golden State. They are playing at at .500 level right now. Not enough in the West
R: Well, I think it will be Denver but that's just a gut feeling.
There you have, a little bit long but with lot's of "sustance". I hope you guys enjoy reading it
Morgan: We'll start with the East. The top seed, the Celtics. How 'bout this guys?
Rusty: Definitely a contender and they are my favorites to win the Eastern Conference. The only thing that could derrail this team is a major injury to any of their so called Big Three.
M: Well yeah. Any team that suffers an injury to any of their top three players will be on trouble.
I'm with you they are the team to beat in the East but they haven't face any real pressure they came out blazing of the gates and they have been the number one team since then. They are a veteran team and the leadership is clearly there but it could interesting to see this team's response to adversity in a critical game.R: Also they are not that deep. If Garnett or Pierce miss considerable time against the Pistons or whoever cames out of the West this team can't replace their production. No for more than a couple of games.
M: Do you trust Doc Rivers?
R: I hope that at this point he has his team figured it out.Don't you think?
M: Yeah, but do you trust him?
R: I trust his trust on his veteran players
M: Now the Pistons. They always need to feel disrespected to play their best ball. Boston's success may give him that fire.
R: That's being their "mojo" from day 1. They also have that chip in the shoulder for being eliminated by a one man team last season. For my money, they are the best Pistons team since winning the championship in 2004.
M: They are a lock to reach the Conference Finals. Now, can Boston survive the one man team?
R: Everybody saw what Lebron James did to the Pistons and everybody saw what the Spurs did to James. Boston is a better defensive team that the Detroit Pistons a year ago they won't let James take over the entire series. The Cavaliers could win a game or two.
M: Well, now argue there. You get the feeling that KG is going to will his way to the conference finals. Wrapping up the East, Boston or Detroit?
R: The Boston Celtics specially if the Lakers reach the Western conference Finals. The league won't let a Lakers- Celtics finals slip away.
M: I'm impress, you have change Rusty! This will be a great seven game series and most of the games will come down to the final play specially with two defensive oriented teams. Given that Detroit have more "clutch" players I'm given this series to the Pistons
R: If it comes to the last shot Detroit does have a better chance to represent the East in the NBA Finals
M: Well this part went rather smoodly -more smooth that I'd want for a discussion post- Let's go to the fun part: the West. Your number one contender, Rusty?
R: I'm a old school guy so I'm going to the old school team: the San Antonio Spurs. They are the most solid team , they have the experience and for whatever reason they always have that lucky bounce of the ball going their way
M: I'm torn between the top three teams: Spurs, Lakers and Hornets. San Antonio have everything that you just said and also I'm waiting for the chance for Manu to take over this playoffs. If that happens and the Spurs won by the hand of Manu will be the best story for this team.
For the Lakers I'm also looking forward to see how Kobe response to the level of play in the West. If he and Bynum and Gasol are healthy they are the favorites in my book. But that's a big if. The Hornets will make noise, somehow. They can compete with anybody their only weakness is that their shooters are rather streaky but when you have a point guard like Chris Paul anything can happen.
R: Apparently Bynum will be back but I don't think he will be in shape to handle the bigs in the West, whatever the matchups are. The Lakers are a great team but if they run into the Spurs their run will be over... UNLESS... they league decides otherwise
M: You are pushing that in every line. Come on, come clean...
R: What?
M: A'right. Do you think the league is fixing the playoffs?
R: No, Morgan. I'll never say that. It will be very stupid for this league to go out and fix the outcome of the entire championship.There's a huge difference between fixing the all tournament and helping or giving a team a better shot at winning a game. That's what the NBA does
M: I just did a little homework for you. Here and here.
I don't know if the Lakers' chances are ridding in Bynum's shoulders. Gasol is a pretty good matchup against any big he can't defend but he's there, catch my drift?. Besides offensively he's a handful.
R: Yeah, but defense wins playoff games. They are still a good defensive team but if other team goes on a isolation against Gasol over and over again they could be in trouble
M: That's unlukely.There's help defense, you know?
R: There's open three point shooter, you know?
M: Fine, Fine. How about the Hornets?
R: I love Chris Paul. He's been the best point guard hands down. West and Chandler are having great season thanks to Paul at some degree. My only concern with this team is what happen whe defensive schemes take West and Chandler out of the game or at least keeping them in check. Would Paul brings them back?
M: That's also my issue with this guys, sort of. Can they survive the playoffs and everything that comes along? Is Paul that good?
R: Right now, he's not. They can defeat younger teams like Utah, Denver or Golden State. Their road ends in San Antonio or LA
M:Who else is a contender here?
R: Everybody in the top seven
M:For my own appreciation if Utah can handle their way on the road in a more consistent way they can also be a contender. Williams and Boozer are just too good, they have the shooters, they have the defense and they ceitanly have the coach
R: Utah is going to start on the road if the loose both games is over for them.
M: They are tough enough to recover from that, they bounced back last year against the Rockets even winning game 7 at Houston. I know is all about the matchups but it is easier for them to win in the road that the other team winning at Utah.
R: They will need to drow a mentally softer team like Dallas or Houston. Even there is Tracy McGrady or Josh Howard or any fast swing player have a GREAT series they can't matchup. Kirilenko and their entire team defense has taken a step back.
M: I don't think Utah can be discarded that easily. DWill and Boozer bring it night in and night out. Every single night
R: Then explain me their road record
M: The other guys don't follow the trend
R: Exactly! This is a team sport. They can't win with just two guy playing their heart out. Maybe against a team with a weaker "fire" but no against a hungry team where everybody pulls for one goal
M: Man, that was poetic!. You mention the Mavs as a good matchup for Utah. Are they even going to be there?
R: Dallas is not a good matchup for anybody not if Nowitzki comes back
healthy. I need to believe this guys can win with a point guard like Jason Kidd. If they are left behind there's something wrong on the team and I'll point my finger to NowitzkiM: Not to Avery?
R: Do you believe all the talk about "overcoaching" ?
M: I believe that this team is not build to take advantage of Kidd's skills. He's a great leader and that's always welcome but where he's great is at running the fast break and this is not a running team. They are not going to trade Nowitzki they'll better trade Kidd for a point guar who can shoot.
R: This is Nowitzki's team- actually is Cuban's first and Avery's Second - but Dirk Nowitzki is the leader on paper and he needs to step up. He has to be the guy who goes to his coach and said that things need to change, set plays need to change. His voice has to be heard
M: That's a good point by I still think that even with a healthy Nowitzki they will be out in the first round
R: If Dirk Nowitzki is healthy they can advance. I'm insist it's all about matchups
M: We still haven't talk about two similiar teams: Nuggets and Warriors. High ofensive teams featuring powerful scorers but they ain't that great at stopping the other team. Denver can be very, very dangerous. Specially now that KMart has his bounce back as he gives them a solid third option and another great defender near the basket. If they get a great stretch from KMart and Camby this team is a contender.
R: You convinced me rather quickly there! I agree with the Denver statement they could be very well a contender this year. They have one of the best starting lineups a decent bench and defensive big guys. Their minus are that they aren't commited to defense and their chemistry could improve. I don't think they could win it all but they are a dangerous team and they just need a good run which they are perfectly capable of doing
M: There a five great defensive teams right now in contention (Spurs, Lakers, Rockets, Pistons and Celtics) and you could make the case for Phoenix. Denver push ends as soon as they face any of those teams. As for the Warriors, let me tell you I've seen some 5 o 6 Warriors' games in the past month and their worst enemy is themselves. Is not only that they don't defend and their most played setplay is "RUN". They take shots that would shock you, seriously, and that's how Nellieball is played but they go into stretches where they can't buy a basket and that's when they lost everything. There's no difference between the Warriors leading by 20 and the Warriors loosing by 10
R: Well you look for the consistency in your team, Morgan. Take a look a the Spurs. There's no difference between the Spurs leading by 20 and the Spurs loosing by 10. You live and die by your style of play. What doesn't work for Golden State is that theirs is so frentic that sometimes, as you said, it works against them
M:22 straight wins and we haven't talk about them. I say Houston goes as far as McGrady takes them and if history taught us anything...
R: You write it quite accurate in a previus post. Their role players specially Rafer Alston played the best basketball of their careers during that streak. I don't see that happening again in the playoffs
M: They still are a good defensive team and you know what people say "defense wins championships"
R: They still would need some offense to back it up.
M: Good point. And some heart and desire will be nice
R: That would be swell!
M: Swell? WTF?
R: I thought you will like that
M: Yeah, it made my day.....Last but no least. Shaquille O'neal and the Phoenix Suns. If they keep playing the way they are right now they become my second pick to get out of the West. Shaq is playing decent ball, Amare is unstoppable and amazingly Nash is the one who, when they had that 1 -6 stretch or something, was the "weakest link" but now his playing at the level he's used to perform
R: Nash is not as good as a previous years by just a little bit. All the role players are playing subpars season in comparision with last year specially Leandro Barbosa. They seem a little bit in the same boat as the Denver Nuggets but with a stronguer psique. They have big guys that can't prevent penetrations - although not as good as Martin and Camby in Denver - and they have a high scoring mentality. This is the hardest team for me to read because the line between being a contender and being out in the first round is so thin for them.
M: Grant Hill is the key for them. If he's able to give them a little bit of what Marion gave them specially defense to stop the array of wing players in the West they have a shot. If Manu, Deron Williams, Kobe, TMac, Paul,Melo ,etc. start getting in the paint and putting Amare and Shaq in fou trouble that's it for them. As you said, they don't longer had the 3 point assault to take them out of trouble.
R: With the trade they gain more control of the boards. That added to Steve Nash gives them control of the flow of the game that's huge in the playoffs. But they lost that defensive advantage Marion gave them that covered for Nash and Stoudemire defensive shortcomings. Once again it depends on the matchups
To wrap it out, who do think is going to end up as the 9th team?
M: Golden State. They are playing at at .500 level right now. Not enough in the West
R: Well, I think it will be Denver but that's just a gut feeling.
There you have, a little bit long but with lot's of "sustance". I hope you guys enjoy reading it
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