We have reached the finals after a rather boring playoffs. I've never been more bored watching NBA since 1999 but that is not the point of this post.
Lets take a look at how the Lakers got here: They cruised-control better part of the second part of the season, never managed to jell Artest into the offense, Bynum look worn out and Kobe insisted to put up 30 shots a game to get his 25 points while Gasol complained that he could get those points in half the tries. Experts didn't gave them a shot at the tittle. Kobe and Co. gave those experts more fuel to add to the fire with their performance in the first 4 games against the Thunder in the first round ( They barely escaped with the win in game 2 and got blown out of the building in game 4) They finished with two straight wins but needed a timely tip in by Gasol to win game 6. Not what would you call championships performance against a 8 seed.
They were lucky enough to run into a small Utah team which they destroy with their length. Sweep.
At this point they had won 6 straight games, they stretched that run to 8 games after easily winning the first two games against their Western Conference Finals rivals the Phoenix Suns. Then the Suns threw a curve ball and started playing zone defense which throw off the Lakers so bad they forgot they to play defense. The result: They gave up 115 and 118 points in two loses at the desert. They won at home thanks to buzzer beater put back by Artest and after blowing a double digit lead in the final quarter they needed the best 2 minutes of Kobe Bryant to eliminate the Suns.
So, they get to the Finals for the third straight year with a shitload of luck and another truck full of the best stretch Kobe has had all year long.
The Celtics get to the Finals against all odds, Phil Collins would be proud. From game 1 in round 1 they started to fight. They dispatched a Heat that had very little, ok they had nothing ,besides DWade. "Experts" weren't that surprise but they already had wrote the C's tombstone by the buzzer of game 5 against the Heat. They were against Lebron James and the 61 win Cleveland Cavaliers. They were dead. That was it. Why bother? It was going to be a sweep , a 5 game sweep if they were lucky. And lucky they were, they managed to get a win in Cleveland but got manhandled in game 3 at home. After that it was all Boston and their defense. Jamison never figured out how to drive past the one legged Garnett that outplayed him all series long in both ends. Shaq was never a factor. Mo Williams played in small controlled spurts and was pretty much abused by Rondo. But the biggest problem was Lebron's elbow. He hurt his elbow at some point in the last month of the season and actually did some drama in the closing minutes of game 5 against the Bulls shooting a left handed free throw. In the final two games of the series Lebron wasn't there. My take is the elbow was really bothering him in game 5. This is the first injury that had produced real limitation in Lebron's game. He didn't actually knew how to play with it. I mean, have you seen this guy? It takes a lot to take down a guy built like that. In game 5 he was hurting and nobody on his team step up. He got all the blame and all the heat from the media. Nobody else. Game 6 , same history. Lebron seemed limited and outside the first half of Mo Williams, the Cavs never knew what to do. Not Shaq. Not Mike Brown. No Antawn Jamison. They just roll over and saw how the Celtics took control of the game ( and the franchise future). That's the biggest break of luck of this playoffs ( I know dealing with injuries is part of the game but if you are a C's fan you ought admit it was pretty cool having Lebron injured for the series)
Then it was the Magic at the Conference Finals. Those first three games, joined with the last three games of the Cleveland series, were a defensive clinic. The Celtics not only defeat those teams, they broke them. They pull out their spirit and their fighting chances right out of their chest. I was amazing. They won that series in 6. Luck was also involve in getting the Celtics back to the Finals but defense and intensity has been the trademark of this team the last 6 weeks. They would love to stretch that for another 3 weeks or so.
Can the result of this Finals be read in how the 2008 Finals played out? The Celtics are a very different team more so than the Lakers. Rondo is now the second best player behind PP. Perkins is a better defender. KG is half the player it was back then. The bench is thinner and they have Rasheed Wallace now ( you make the call if that is good or bad ). The Lakers are slightly different too. Kobe is playing better this post season. So is Gasol although he showed some of those "soft qualities" against the Suns. Their bench is terrible. They are slower. They are bigger now. This series is not going to be decided on matchups ( both teams have a good answer for every player of the other team ) or adjustments ( Are we really going to be surprised when Kobe starts defending Rondo? Or when Bynum see the entire final quater from the bench? I hope we get a comment from Phil referring to Gasol's testicular fortitude). This series is going to be about swing points. Bear with me here:
1.How soon does Rondo manage to figure out Lakers' D? I see him having some issues trying to navigate through the length of the Lakers but he'll crack it open eventually. If it happens too soon it might not have such a heavy effect since the Lakers are expecting that and preparing for it, if Rondo struggles to get inside the Lakers might relax ( even great teams do that) and give him opportunities to attack.
2. Artest vs Pierce. I've never considered Paul Pierce in my top 10 players.Never. He does have one quality as an scorer: He manages to get his points on his terms. You know what I mean? He is not Kevin Durant or Lebron James, players that can score in any ways you can imagine, he has a number of ways to score and he does not tries anything else. Ron Artest is not the great defender he once was but he is a physical defender and still quick enough to stay with Pierce. If Artest manages to shut down Pierce or at least force him into turnovers or bad shots, Lakers' chances improve dramatically. In the other hand if Pierce wiggles his way inside Artest head (As we speak Piercer is getting training from Sheed on how to achieve this in less thatn 2 games) that could potentially swing the series. If Artest have to be kept away from Pierce, Kobe has to defend him. That leaves Artest on Allen or Rondo and there is no way Artest can chase any of those guys without committing a minimum of 3 fouls per 12 minutes fighting of screens from the Celtics' bigs
3. Sheed and Odom: Two players whose focus drifts in and out of game like an Magnum condom on a small dick. Sheed has been way more consistent and productive since the Cleveland series and Boston doesn't need his scoring to win game. It needs his edge , his aggressiveness, his mojo. LA needs Odom to play some serious basketball or they don't get anything from their bench. Phil Jackson can't play his starters all 48 minutes. Kobe showed some signs of tiredness games 3, 4 and 5 against the Suns in the fourth quater. Bynum is not even playing 25 minutes. Fisher needs to be rested for the final 6 minutes. If Odom fails to get "lucky" at getting a double double - or something close - L.A. might be in trouble specially as the series goes on.
4. Perkins suspension: He is getting that T sooner or latter. Boston can only hope he gets it sooner but not in game 3. They cannot afford to loose the first game in they home floor, no matter what is the state of the series. Boston is loosing the game Perkins doesn't play. Lakers would love to be game 6 or 7 ( Believe the Basketball Gods, after game 5 the Lakers are really going to go after Perkins "tender demeanor")
Now this next on is the BIG ONE. This is THE swing point . I can't bold this enough.
5. Pau Gasol softness. This is as simple as it gets. If Pau Gasol still poop his calzones when he thinks of KG, this is going to be a very green summer! One of the reasons why the Lakers lost in 2008 was because Gasol was too intimidated by KG - and the other C's - intensity and physical play. After the Lakers won the title last year nobody was talking about Gasol's manhood. He was a champion. Everything was dandy!. During this season and the first two rounds of this playoffs Gasol emerged as perhaps the best big men in the league.
Facing a 0-2 hole in the Western finals while being abused in the inside Suns' coach Gentry made two adjustments. Play zone defense and show some tough love to Gasol. Phil Jackson eventually figured out how to beat the zone defense but once again Gasol softness popped out . We saw a different Pau in the last 4 games. He still got his numbers but his aggressiveness was nowhere to be found. If the Lakers get his soft and tender Gasol in the finals the C's are eating them alive. There is no meaner ( for good or for bad ) team in the league than the Boston Celtics. Even Big Baby is meaner than Gasol. This is the guy the really gives another dimension to the Lakers, a very efficient post presence which is very needed if Kobe is not shooting high percentages. Can the Lakers win with a scared Pau Gasol? No if the Celtics are healthy. Is that simple in my book. Can the Celtics win against an aggressive Gasol? Yes but they would need very strong contributions from the bench and play very very smart basketball.
If you take a look at this teams in paper you would give the advantage to the Lakers and nobody would say " You are crazy!", specially considering how good Kobe has been this past month. But the fact that the Lakers haven't seen a defense - an intensity- like the Celtics play in this playoffs is a major factor to consider forecasting this series. I'm feeling a 7 or 6 game. Lakers title. Kobe a well deserved MVP.
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