Free Agency. Day 7

Well, the day started with the biggest news of this free agency. Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh are joining forces in Miami. The Miami Heat now have 4 players on the roster. Until I see how does Pat Riley fills that roster I'm not grading these moves. Sure, they are a heck of a star , if they get the right players they could really become the class of the East. In the other hand, 8 minimum players with two superstars and 2 roles players is not what you would call a "blueprint for success" ( Bad joke, sorry).

Something you have to give to the Heat, they are so far the winners of this free agency madness. They got two max agents and rumors point that Lebron is about to join them. Now you have to ask yourself, does a Bosh/Wade/Lebron teamed with Beasly, Chambers and 7 minimum players can win the title? It's all about those 7 players. If Riley get an enforcer, a couple of shooters, a pass-first point guard and smart players they would be the favorites.

A news came out in the middle of all this. Kevin Durant signed an 5 year extension ( $86m) with OKC. No meetings. No drama. No ESPN special. Just a little sign in the dotted line and get back to bastkeball. I tweeted about this and I'll say it again. Aren't we barking at the wrong tree? Isn't the way Durant is behaving how Lebron suppose to behave? Critics of Lebron have always say that he is more focus on becoming a global icon and make his "brand" stronger and stronger. Basketball appears just to be a way to get there.

After the Wade/Bosh announcement the Knicks/Bulls/Nets started to scramble around looking ways to entice Lebron. There were reports flying left and right about Knicks and Bulls talking to Boozer. The Nets were in talk with David Lee. Just after noon we heard that Boozer signed with the Bulls ( 5 yr/somewhere between $75m and $80m). Which makes things even more interesting. Now Lebron have a better idea of what are his choises:

1. Heat with 4 players on their roster ( Wade, Bosh. Chalmers and Beasly)

2. Bulls with a core of Rose/Noah/Boozer

3. Knicks with Amare and some help from Gallinari

4. Cavs

I don't know about him but Chicago is looking pretty hot.

At the end of the day was also reported the Ray Allen is going back to Boston (2yr/$10m).

As I'm typing this twitter has gone insane. Broussard is reporting Lebron is headed to Miami.

Free Agency.Day 2

We had a quiet day in the "commitment" front but we got tons of rumors

Paul Pierce is staying green. His new contract ( 4 years/$61 millon) give the C's a little more room to play

Hakim Warrick is now a Sun at $18 million thru 4 years This is the Amare replacement? Over/Under on Nash asking very politely to get traded, half season?

John Salmons is re-signing with the Bucks (5 yrs/ $39 million ). This is the second signing for the Bucks. First Gooden and now Salmons, plus the deals for CDR and Maggette, are shaping this Bucks like a lock for a 5o win team. Great cast, good lead players ( Bogut and Jennings ), good coach. I like this team. Plus, they are playing in a division where it might host only one other decent team ( Cleveland or Chicago)

The Lakers are adding Steve Blake at 4 yrs/$16 million. I don't think this means nothing for Fisher but its a good backup plan in case he gets too greedy ( Reeeeaally don't see that happening)

Now the fun stuff.....

The biggest news is that Wade had a second meeting with the Bulls. Less than one hour into this second meeting, Bosh arrived and they both talk with the management team. They talked for more than 2 hours. They even left together. What does this means? No idea. Wade has been hinting that he's staying in Miami for awhile. Now we are seeing him flirting with Chicago...I really don't know what to make out of it.

Yesterday was reported that the Hawks offered the max to Joe Johnson and naturally we all assume that he was accepting it. Everybody did. Today it was reported that he was "intrigued" by New York and Chicago. My take on that is he seeing the NYK budget wide open after what appear is a strikeout on the three main targets ( Lebron, Wade and Bosh). He could rejoin Amar'e and D'Antoni grabbing a couple of All Star selections here and there, maybe a second round cameo playing for the Knicks. That could be serious dope and a bunch of money coming from New York City advertisement.

T'wolves are pushing Big Al hard! Chicago and Dallas being the possible destinations. They really like David Lee and their meeting for tomorrow still on, even though that they only have around $5 million left to spend. Odds are that Big Al is traded this summer.

Also in the open market, the Bulls are placing Loul Deng. Apparently the rumor is that he is heading to Portland in exchange for Joel Przybilla and Jerryd Bayless. The first is an expiring contract. Maybe the rumor of the Bulls having the best chance for grouping Wade, Bron and Bosh is not that false. Maybe they are just trying.

Free Agency. Where are they going?

Straight from the Gods:

Lebron James: Chicago Bulls. And no, he is not pairing with Bosh. Carlos Boozer is coming to Chi town. That is going to hurt Cavs. Double. This is leaving Chicago enough money to round up the roster with decent role players

Chris Bosh: Miami Heat. DWade has his new sidekick. Same case as the Bulls, the are not throwing all their money in two players. They are going to spread the wealth.

Amare Stoudemire and Joe Johnson: New York Knicks. Well, Plan B worked.

David Lee: New Jersey Nets. He likes the area and the Russian guy is probably going to seriously overpaid to get him. Keeps him in line with his plan of turning Knicks fans into Nets fans

Paul Pierce and Ray Allen: Boston Celtics

Dirk Nowitzki: Dallas Mavericks. He is probably also getting Shaquille O'neal in a sign and trade for Butler with the Cavs. This team might be the front runners on getting Arenas next February.

Rudy Gay: L.A Clippers. They are going to overpay for him. Big time!

J.J. Redick: Orlando Magic. Offers are going to be there but I don't the Magic letting him go

John Salmons: Torn between Milwaukee Bucks and New Jersey Nets. Probably the latter

Brad Miller: Chicago Bulls. He likes it there. They like him

Udonis Haslem: Miami Heat

Free Agency. What are the offering?

The last post i gave a list of 8 teams that actually are players in this cute lil summer. This is a grosso modo what are they offering:

New York Knicks: The same thing they have been preaching since Donnie Walsh came aboard. Faith. Mike Wilbon said it. They have nothing more than faith. I'm aware of New York city's glamour and appeal but the main targets are taking basketball based decisions. New York has nothing more to offer than a Spike Lee and the "Meca" of basketball. I think is pretty clear that whoever they get is going to have to wait 2 years atleast to start winning seriously.

They have room for two max players. But nothing else. You are telling me that Bron, Bosh, Gallinari and Wilson Chandler surrounded by less-than-2-million-per-year role players are going through Orlando , Boston or L.A.? Please!

New Yersey Nets: This is why is important to start thinking about this right now. 6 months ago nobody was giving the Nets a chance. Now they have this owner, Mikhail Prokhorov, who is worth bizillions. He has come to spent, to shake things up. He is like a mutant Mark Cuban, like Bill Simmons calls him. This guy plus the eventual move to Brooklyn plus Brook Lopez and Devin Harris and Derrick Favors, makes the Nets are pretty good place to consider.

The bad? Those supposedly two years in Newark could became three or four. Devin Harris is not that good and the russian might get bored on his new toy. All signs point that they guy is not like that at all. He is a successful guy, he takes care of his investments and his a fan but you never know....

Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah could be in contention in a couple of years adding the right players to the mix. This is great nucleus already and they have room for two max players ( with a little paycut). There is also the big market, the "winning tradition", the great fan base. An owner that might not be perfect but he is willing to pay. The wrinkle in this is HOW much is going to pay. Every free agent is going to ask for the assurance that Rose and Noah are going to be Bulls for a long time, not sure Reinsdorf is going for that one.

Miami Heat: Everything is working for Miami. They have DWade recruiting. They can pair DWade with two more A list players ( with discount). They have the owner. The city. The fans.

Nothing is wrong with that picture but if they manage to add two more player to play with Wade then there is no money left for role players. Right now Miami only has Chalmers and Beasley under contract. If they go the other way and sign just one max player to pair with Wade they would have enough money to overpaid another B list player ( lets say Richard Jefferson or David Lee). Just an hint...

L.A Clippers: They are the perfect fit for Lebron. Everything! Is like a glove! The players, the city, the scenario of stealing Kobe's spotlight. Good God that would be priceless. But no , Donald Sterling still running the show over there so too bad. I'm pretty sure they are going to grab a free agent. No big name but somebody is going to give it a shot.

Wizards: They have been helping teams unload contracts lately ( Nets and Bulls) so I think they holding to their cap space and "collect" those favors come February when they try to unload Arenas. You know, three or four team deals are hard to pull off.

Kings and Bucks: They are going to add somebody, some JJ Redick or Shanon Brown type of name. Both are young teams willing to roll a dice a little bit.

Celtics: I think they are staying put. They are going to spent big resigning Pierce. Don't expect any big moves from Ainge unless he decides to blow things up which is very likely now that Doc is returning

Free Agency. The facts

We have been waiting for this for more than 2 years. This is when I'm giggling like a school girl because we finally know most of the facts that we need to take an EDUCATED GUESS ( I don't think ESPN are familiar with this concept. They know things like " HITS" and "POPULARITY" things me or the Basketball Gods have no idea )

This is what you need to know:

1. The Cleveland Cavaliers did not win the championship. They didn't even get close to it. My thoughts were if Lebron wins a ring in Cleveland there is no way he's leaving. No way in hell. If the had gotten close, lets say game 6 or 7 of the NBA Finals, he wasn't going to leave neither. But he got pwned in the second round by the Boston Celtics. At that point I said "60-40" on he leaving.

2. The L.A. Lakers won the championship. Proving that you need two big GAME players to make it. Lebron does not have that on Cleveland, neither does Bosh on Toronto. Cleveland try to pull on of those shameless steals ala Pau Gasol and all they got was Shaq and Antawn Jamison.Not bad players to have in your roster but there is no way they are second bananas. Third option in Jamison case. First big from the bench for Shaq.

3. The cap will be $56.1.

4. This are the teams that cap and cards on this game:

1. New York Knicks

2. Chicago Bulls

3. New Jersey Nets.

4. Miami Heat

5. Milwaukee Bucks

6. Boston Celtics

7. Washington Wizards

8. L.A. Clippers

5. All the big names you were expecting to opt-out did. Also crashing the party came: Dirk, Paul Pierce and Richard Jefferson

6. Something you already now , just in case lets put it on paper, one or two free agents are going to get seriously overpaid. This is a huge factor to keep an eye on. Lets say Atlanta offers Joe Johnson 13 millions but the Russian guy goes out an offer the max ( around 16.7 millions). Guess were JJ is going....

Drafts 2001-2005

2001

You would like a mulligan on this one right, MJ? Gasol is probably the best big man right now behind D12, Joe Johnson is a top tier player, Tony Parker is a 3 time champ and a finals MVP, Zach Randolph is (was?) crazy but gives you a 20/10 night after night. So, yeah, bad choice MJ, bad choice

Championship Builders: None

Biggest Jump: Mehmet Okur from 37th to 10th

Pick Order. Picking Team -- Player Selected ( Original position drafted)

1. Wizards -- Pau Gasol (3)
2. Clippers -- Joe Johnson (10)
3. Hawks -- Tony Parker (29)
4. Bulls -- Shane Battier (6 )
5. Warriors -- Zach Randolph (19)
6. Grizzlies -- Gerald Wallace (25)
7. Nets -- Richard Jefferson (13)
8. Cavs -- Jason Richardson (5)
9. Pistons -- Tyson Chandler (2)
10. Celtics -- Mehmet Okur (37)


2002

Solid solid class featuring 4 quality dependable big guys (if we count Nene as dependable), Amare could overtake Yao as the first pick depending on where he lands this summer. Also a very bad drafted class as we have 3 second round picks in the top 10.


Championship Builders: Rockets
Biggest Jump: Luis Scola from 55th to 9th


Pick Order. Picking Team -- Player Selected ( Original position drafted)

1. Rockets -- Yao Ming (1)
2. Bulls -- Amare Stoudemire (9)
3. Warriors -- Carlos Boozer (34)
4. Grizzlies -- Caron Butler (10)
5. Nuggets -- Tayshaun Prince (23)
6. Cavs -- John Salmons (26)
7. Knicks -- Nene Hilario (7)
8. Clippers -- Matt Barnes (45)
9. Suns -- Luis Scola (55)
10. Heat -- Drew Gooden (4)



2003

Four franchise players. Its 1984 all over again and as in 1984 the redoing of this class changes everything! Cleveland get Lebron but the Pistons come away with Dwayne Wade, basically taking away the 2006 title from the Heat and Shaq’s fourth title. What Detroit does with Wade? Bring him off the bench? We all know Wade was ready to be a impact player in year one, does Larry Brown plays him? Do the trade him? I’m guessing both Dumars and Brown would realize what they have in hands and do the right thing (Trading Rip after a year or two). Kaman goes to the Heat (no more Shaq) and Perkins take Kaman’s spot in the Clippers (Sorry Kendrick. Sorry Celtics)

Championship Builders: Cavs, Pistons, Nuggets, Raptors

Biggest Jump: Kendrick Perkins from 27th to 6th


Pick Order. Picking Team -- Player Selected ( Original position drafted)

1. Cavs -- Lebron James (1)
2. Pistons -- Dwayne Wade (5)
3. Nuggets -- Carmelo Anthony (3)
4. Raptors -- Chris Bosh (4)
5. Heat -- Chris Kaman (6)
6. Clippers -- Kendrick Perkins (27)
7. Bulls-- David West (18)
8. Bucks -- Leandro Barbosa (28)
9. Knicks -- Boris Diaw (21)



2004

Fourth straight solid talent filled class. And you wonder why we are getting a better product (player wise). The impact of this class: Al Jefferson getting selected by the Bobcats so the Celtics don’t have the golden ticket to get the Big Ticket. No 17th banner for the Celtics. Oh look, the Hawks selects a point guard!

Championship Builders: Magic, Bobcats

Biggest Jump: Anderson Varejao from 30th to 11th


Pick Order. Picking Team -- Player Selected ( Original position drafted)

1. Magic -- Dwight Howard (1)
2. Bobcats -- Al Jefferson (15)
3. Bulls -- Josh Smith (17)
4. Clippers -- Emeka Okafor (2)
5. Wizards -- Andre Igoudala (9)
6. Hawks -- Jameer Nelson (20)
7. Suns -- Loul Deng (7)
8. Raptors -- Kevin Martin (26 )
9. Sixers -- Ben Gordon (3)
10. Cavs -- Devin Harris (5)
11. Warriors -- Anderson Varejao (30)
12. Sonics -- J.R. Smith (18)



2005

Can we say “5 straight good class?” Not exactly a deep class but you rarely have the first 6 teams selecting coming out with a big smile in their faces. We have two franchise point guards, one big swing man who wants to be a second banana and three really good big man who happens to be young enough to get better. Oh look, the Hawks selects a point guard!

Championship Builders: Bucks, Hawks

Biggest Jump: Anderson Varejao from 30th to 6th


Pick Order. Picking Team -- Player Selected ( Original position drafted)




1. Bucks -- Chris Paul (4)
2. Hawks -- Deron Williams (3)
3. Jazz -- Danny Granger (17)
4. Hornets -- Andrew Bogut (1)
5. Bobcats -- Andew Bynum (10)
6. Blazers -- David Lee (30)
7. Raptors -- Raymon Felton (5)

2008 Trading Bonanza. The Sequel ?

Four monts go by so quickly. I gain nothing looking back and trying to explain my non existening fan base what the hell I've been doing during the NBA Season. I have been watching. I know what's going on but I'm sure y'all also know what is happening so let's call it a day , a'right?

I've finally been compelled to blog thanks to the tons and tons of trade rumors out there. So I'm killing some time arranging some trades that should happen (Using ESPN's Trade Machine or RealGM's Trade Checker. Keep this in mind and weight in this trades the economic scenario we are living in. Small market teams like Hornets or Milwaukee might be force to surrender some key players just because there's not enough money to pay the luxury tax. This is a reality. It certainly sucks for a team like New Orleans to give away Tyson Chandler for some scrub and a draft pick but this are the times that even the deep pockets ain't so deep no more (Yeah, the rest of us who don't even have pockets we are just fucked)

The Amar'e Saga

Apparently Amar'e is going nowhere. If something happens in the next couple of days this is the trade I'd like see happening. Amare to Toronto, Bosh to Chicago, a nice little package to Phoenix.
Why would Colangelo do this? I know is far fetched but somewhere down the line Colangelo will have to trade Bosh. This way he's getting a player ready for primetime, not just a kid with some upside and a hustle swing player in Nocioni, that might prove to be better suited for Toronto than Shawn Marion (cheaper too). Phoenix is geting more than 12 million dollars coming off the book next season and Chicago is getting the franchise big guy to pair with Rose.
Chances of happening? 0.2%





The Blazers

Kevin Pritchard is looking at Caron Butler, Richard Jefferson and Gerald Wallace. I do think he's going to end up with one of those guys.

Washington might be shaving salaries just as a consecuence of their record. I don't see them moving Butler but I see Jamison in different colors next weekend. More on him later.

Milwaukee is going nowhere this season or next or the next one after that. If you ask me Michael Redd is not a franchise player but right now he's injured and untradable. As the big australian is untouchable the only valuable piece here is Jefferson. So he'll be sacrificied for the all mighty dollar. The Bucks get LaFrentz's contract and a couple of young guns. Next year they can trade Redd and I promise you the Buck will be in a better place
Chances of happening? 30%

Larry Brown likes Gerald Wallace. He does. But again economics might get in the way and I assure you they prefer keeping Okafor than Wallace. That's the only reason why I see something like this happening. This way the Bobcats get rid of Felton in the process and get in return cap space (aka LaFrentz' expiring contract), Sergio Rodriguez and the likeable sweet shooting Martell Webster. Throw some draft picks here and there and they are done. Take this as a straight up salary dumping move
Chances of happening? 14%


And Chris Paul is pick and rolling with...

Another crisis related move. Add one of the 800 draft picks Sam Presti has collected and we have a cute little trade. You know I hold Wilcox in high regard. He works hard, great rebounder, good guy. A little undersized and he might collide with West in the court but the Hornets would save more then 11 million dollars this offseason. And Chandler gets a fresh start ...again...
Chances of happening? 49%



Dead Wizards

They might no be dead (Basketball wise they are) but they are too expensive to be this bad. Arenas is...Arenas. Whatever that means. So their tradeable assets are Jamison and Butler. Butler is younger and that is why he's the guy staying and Jamison is the one packing his stuff. A pretty much straight up Jamison for Artest deal might be the right path for both teams and players. Houston gets a reliable 4 and Washington get a half season trial on Artest ( why everybody gets and "Artest trial" You all know that he can snap after more han 4 months, right?). Not sure the Rockets are going to give up on their own "big three" just yet but they might realize that this guys are not delivering no championship.
Chances of happening? 8%

Dont' hold your breath for...

This are the thing you are not going to see happening this season:

1. I don't see the Celtics repeating. The hunger will be there but the health and those lucky bounces might not be there this year. And the chances of a team as soft as the Lakers getting out of the West are very poor.

2. The Knicks wining more than 34 games. There's going to be trades, lineup shuffling, mardbury complains,etc..just keeping the drama going.

3. Jermaine O'neal is not coming back to his old form pre-melee. I like the guy, he's a great post player and we don't much of those left and I just hope he plays enough time and there's enough game in him to open up the game a little for Chris Bosh

4. Corey Maggette celebrating a championship (I know cheap shot for selecting the Warriors over the Spurs)

5. The Suns getting out of the first round. They do have enough talent in there for a 55 win season but I don't care how much the slow down I can't see Amare , Nash and Shaq defeating the Spurs, Hornets or Jazz.

6. Lebron's first ring. Might be his MVP season ( if he doesn't start cruising 20 games in the season) but Mo Williams doesn't strike as the Scottie Pippen type of player and their shooters have never been that stone cold!

7. The Pistons holding their fourth O'brien Trophy. I think this guys' run ended in Lebron's 48 point game. They need to retool and pronto.

8. The Hornets having another season like last one. Something tells me this guys are going to take a step back, maybe Chandler or West but I'm see them as a 6th or 5th seed and get kick in their buts by the Lakers or Jazz at some point in the playoffs.

9. Bibby staying in Atlanta. Come on, seriously? What's that guy doing there?!

10. Michael Beasley competing and behaving. I just get a weird vibe from this guy. When the Heat are 8-20 and the Wolves just beat the crap out of them by 36 you are going to see the real Michael Beasley

11. Gilbert Arenas earning his money. But he can write a mean wicked blog!

12. The Nuggets in the playoffs unless the new Melo Carmelo has been talking about is actually Lebron James.

13. The Blazers reaching the 40 win plateau. I know they are the fashion team and everything but Oden still not ready, although 2 block shots per game is almost a guarantee. They need to trade somebody of their young guns and again just a gut feeling they may regrese a little bit on us.

Overview: Magic vs Raptors

I told u so, Dwight Howard dominated and the Magic won the series. I expected more from Bosh and company but they got outplayed in every position including at the 1. Jameer Nelson was a pretty cool surprse with 17.2 ppg with a 52% shooting, he was the better point guard in the series which helped tons to the final result.

What to say about the Raptors? The need help in almost every department. Chris Bosh can't do everything alone. They have no defense, they have no ball movement, they have no bench. They have a bunch of shooters and Andrea Bargniani. The guys that were suppose to be able to create their own shots (Parker, TJ, Moon) struggle mighty and they wasn't facing no Spurs defense.


Whose fault is it? I'm blaming TJ Ford and Bargniani. If they had fall out of bed and broke something in their bodies and they haven't been able to play one minute, it wouldn't have made any difference.

First Round: Magic vs Raptors

3. Magic (52-30) vs 6. Raptors (41-41)
Regular Season Series: ORL 2-1
Point Differencial: ORL +2.3

The first superstar against superstar direct-in-your-face matchup: Chris Bosh vrs Dwight Howard. This matchup is as key as any other you can think in the East. They might look like similar teams given they love the 3 ball - specially Orlando they are second behind only the trigger happy Golden State Warriors - and base they run their offense through their respective big man. Besides that they are different teams. Toronto has a lot of shooters and lots of guys that can create shots ( Ford, Calderon, Delfino) but they have been very inconsistent all season long specially lately (they were 7-13 in their las 20 games).

The Magic has a better team from top to bottom. Howard has a better supporting cast, they are better coached, they know how to win outside their home (27 -14, second best in the East). Said that, Toronto has a shot is Bosh outplays Howard something that has happened prettty much everytime they face each other. Bosh has more weapons in the low post and a sweet 10 footer jump shot. He can actually take Howard out of the zone and maybe put him in foul trouble. With Howard's role limited Orlando is a jump shooting team and we know that just doesn't work in the playoffs. Toronto has a simple offense runned by two very eficient point guards ("El Calderon" like Arenas call him and TJ "Don't hit me in my neck" Ford) what translates in good offense and the Magic ain't no Pistons (defensive wise) but ,lucklily for the Magic , Raptors' shooters haven't made anybody pay lately.

X Factor: Outside the Bosh vrs Howard matcup it has tobe Turkoglu. He can score and create for others. If Howard is controled by Bosh he must be the main guy for Orlando. Hedo owns Scotti Pippen like stats against the Raptors: 21.3 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 7,7 apg. He actually had a triple double against these guy November 7th

Basketball Gods' prediction: ORL 4-2