2008 Trading Bonanza. The Sequel ?

Four monts go by so quickly. I gain nothing looking back and trying to explain my non existening fan base what the hell I've been doing during the NBA Season. I have been watching. I know what's going on but I'm sure y'all also know what is happening so let's call it a day , a'right?

I've finally been compelled to blog thanks to the tons and tons of trade rumors out there. So I'm killing some time arranging some trades that should happen (Using ESPN's Trade Machine or RealGM's Trade Checker. Keep this in mind and weight in this trades the economic scenario we are living in. Small market teams like Hornets or Milwaukee might be force to surrender some key players just because there's not enough money to pay the luxury tax. This is a reality. It certainly sucks for a team like New Orleans to give away Tyson Chandler for some scrub and a draft pick but this are the times that even the deep pockets ain't so deep no more (Yeah, the rest of us who don't even have pockets we are just fucked)

The Amar'e Saga

Apparently Amar'e is going nowhere. If something happens in the next couple of days this is the trade I'd like see happening. Amare to Toronto, Bosh to Chicago, a nice little package to Phoenix.
Why would Colangelo do this? I know is far fetched but somewhere down the line Colangelo will have to trade Bosh. This way he's getting a player ready for primetime, not just a kid with some upside and a hustle swing player in Nocioni, that might prove to be better suited for Toronto than Shawn Marion (cheaper too). Phoenix is geting more than 12 million dollars coming off the book next season and Chicago is getting the franchise big guy to pair with Rose.
Chances of happening? 0.2%





The Blazers

Kevin Pritchard is looking at Caron Butler, Richard Jefferson and Gerald Wallace. I do think he's going to end up with one of those guys.

Washington might be shaving salaries just as a consecuence of their record. I don't see them moving Butler but I see Jamison in different colors next weekend. More on him later.

Milwaukee is going nowhere this season or next or the next one after that. If you ask me Michael Redd is not a franchise player but right now he's injured and untradable. As the big australian is untouchable the only valuable piece here is Jefferson. So he'll be sacrificied for the all mighty dollar. The Bucks get LaFrentz's contract and a couple of young guns. Next year they can trade Redd and I promise you the Buck will be in a better place
Chances of happening? 30%

Larry Brown likes Gerald Wallace. He does. But again economics might get in the way and I assure you they prefer keeping Okafor than Wallace. That's the only reason why I see something like this happening. This way the Bobcats get rid of Felton in the process and get in return cap space (aka LaFrentz' expiring contract), Sergio Rodriguez and the likeable sweet shooting Martell Webster. Throw some draft picks here and there and they are done. Take this as a straight up salary dumping move
Chances of happening? 14%


And Chris Paul is pick and rolling with...

Another crisis related move. Add one of the 800 draft picks Sam Presti has collected and we have a cute little trade. You know I hold Wilcox in high regard. He works hard, great rebounder, good guy. A little undersized and he might collide with West in the court but the Hornets would save more then 11 million dollars this offseason. And Chandler gets a fresh start ...again...
Chances of happening? 49%



Dead Wizards

They might no be dead (Basketball wise they are) but they are too expensive to be this bad. Arenas is...Arenas. Whatever that means. So their tradeable assets are Jamison and Butler. Butler is younger and that is why he's the guy staying and Jamison is the one packing his stuff. A pretty much straight up Jamison for Artest deal might be the right path for both teams and players. Houston gets a reliable 4 and Washington get a half season trial on Artest ( why everybody gets and "Artest trial" You all know that he can snap after more han 4 months, right?). Not sure the Rockets are going to give up on their own "big three" just yet but they might realize that this guys are not delivering no championship.
Chances of happening? 8%

Overview: Hornets vs Spurs

Everything I was expecting from the Spurs - Suns series I got it from this series. By a mile the best series so far this year. Despite of the Spurs improbable victory in game 7 at New Orleans the lasting image for which we are going to remember this series is the arrival of Chris Paul to the mainstream media. I know he already was a MVP candidate a the average NBA fan kinda know he was pretty good. For now on Chris Paul is a household name and next season tons of kids are going to follow him and trying be like him at that, ladies and gentleman, is one of the best it could happen to us. (Pretty corny, right?)

The Hornets pushed the champs to the max. David West and Tyson Chandler played spectacular the game they did win. The same tren was followed by San Antonio' big three. The onyl thing that separated this teams was game 7. Experience. Poise. The good ol' know-how-to was the defining qualities that game this series to San Antonio (Memo to John Hollinger: Dude, this things matter. Just 'cause it can't be measured by some formula it doesn't mean they don't affect the course of a series)

The Spurs continue to be "a hated" team. People call them floppers, dirty team, boring, lucky. As long as they keep winning more people are going to hate them. Maybe that's a requirement to be champions. Get to be hated in at least 5 cities.

Whose fault is it? Probably the low point of the Hornets were their bench. A little production for the likes of Bonzi and Pargo and they'd be facing the Lakers in a couple of hours.

Second Round: Hornets vs Spurs

2. Hornets (56-26) vs 3.Spurs (55-27)
Regular Season Series: TIED 2-2
Point Differencial: NOH +7.0

The new pups against the old savyy dog. Despite the age and experience diference this are two teams relatively similar. Their are lead by their point guards, they have great power forwards and a deep bench. Naturally each of these matchups are going to be key in this series.

Even though considering the fact that Phoenix never put much defensive resistente, both Duncan and Parker were unstoppable against them and they look as hungry and they have look in years. They executed the pick and roll prefectly and Parker was hitting the jump shot becoming unguardable for the Suns. Finley, Oberto and Ginobili had their moments but they were pretty unregular. They need more from them. They need a lot more from Ginobili. Lots of experts predicted that San Antonio were going to win the last series thanks to the Ginobili factor but he was held in check (by his standards) and the Spurs still won the series but this is a thougher more solid team and Manu needs to prove right here right now that he can be as clutch and valueable (hint) as a Kobe or a Paul. The athleticism of New Orleans front court could put Duncan and Thomas in foul trouble so their bench needs to play good and play smart.


This Hornets are a treat to watch. Paul plays with a passion that is very rare to see in such a young player and they are highly efficent. They can drain the three like free throws (.389%, 3rd in the league) and their offensive rating is 5th in league. Their defensive numbers are good (7th in the league in defensive rating) because they control the tempo of the game and the although they can run, they prefer to run the pick and roll and find open shooters in half court schemes. They are young but they are not dumb.

Duncan vs West, Parker vs Paul, Bowen vs Peja. This are going to be matchups were are going to enjoy and you can almost expect good series from those guys. This is going to be a more defensive series than the previous one both teams had. In this one the bench players are going to be THE KEY (yeap capital letters) . Mainly Manu Ginobili. The Hornets doesn't have an answer for him, a few teams do (actually Raja Bell defends manu amanzinly and this year wasn't the exception) he needs to explode the matchup and go right to Tyson Chandler. At some point defense most collapse but before that he needs to make his jump shots which he wasn't doing it against Phoenix. The Hornets must rely on their team defense. That defensive discipline and Paul have take them this long and could easily take them farther.

X Factor: Manu.

Basketball Gods' prediction: SAS 4-2

To Do List

We are like a week and a half for the start of the playoffs and nothing is resolved in the West. I'm not even sure Dallas is going to be the 7th seed. As soon as the matchups are resolved all the blogsphore and other professional writers are going to write their predictions and some generic egocentric view of each first round match (Yeap, I'll write it too) but while we wait let's take a looksy to what each team should worry about -pesimistic thinking here- and need to address before -whisfull thinking here - going to the playoffs:

1. New Orleans: I don't want to get all basketbawful on you all but somebody need to do something about Tyson Chandler's hair. He looks like Vanilla Ice or some 80's version of Wesley Snipes. Basketball wise they are very thin in their frontcourt rotation, Melvin Ely?, Really? and Bonzi Wells ain't worth the gamble.

2. LA Lakers: Yeah, I know their second unit is great they hustle a lot and complement each other and yadda yadda yadda. Their second unit is very propense to silly and unforced turnovers. Bynum ain't coming back.

3. San Antonio Spurs: For the last two to three weeks they have beeb entering the third quater ice cold. They'd had quaters like the one at Utah and this last one against the Lakers where they go like 6 minutes without a field goal. Their defense ain't that great anymore to comeback from such holes.

4. Houston Rockets: Besides TMac nobody there can create their own shot on nightly basis. They have lot's of guns on Rafer Alston, Bobby Jackson, Luther Head and Landry but you can't say: "Well, if McGrady can play or is playing bad not worries WE KNOW that Alston/Jackson/Head/Landry will step up for us". You just can't

5. Utah Jazz: They have to play on the road. And at some point they'll face somebody in the Ginobili/Kobe/TMac/Howard/Melo/Captain Jack group of swingman they can't defend.

6. Phoenix Suns: Amare keeps getting in foul trouble and ol' Steve Nash is no longer the same. Their season depends way too much of Shaq and Grant Hill focus and health, respectively.

7. Dallas Mavs: They will have to defend somebody in the West/Gasol/Duncan/Boozer/Amare group of big men they can't defend. Why Howard hasn't figure out a way to play with Jason Kidd?

8. Denver Nuggets: For them defense is highly overrated because if you have guys like Melo and Iverson is just a matter of points. Because that's the way to the championship, right Nash/Webber/Kidd ?. They can not even defend a pick roll. And yes, zone defense is allow in the playoffs

9. Golden State Warriors: A matchup with Dallas is very unlikely and yes, zone defense is allow in the playoffs

What have you done

I've been a NBA fan for more than 15 years. I've senn tons of young teams get built and eventually broken for whatever reason. Do you remember the old Clippers? The Elton Brand-Lamar Odom-Corey Maggete-Darius Miles-headband fisting Clippers? That was a promising team and one had the feeling that if that core sticks together, they’d be hell of a team. Remember Shaq and Penny? That Magic team had dynasty wrote all over. Zo and Larry Johnson had they chance in Charlotte, Vincesanity and TMac were going to be the next MJ and Scottie (although now you’ll wonder who was who ). The examples go on and on and every team got broken apart for different reasons but I feel a Basketball’s God true heart ache when I think that upper management could have done something different to change the destiny of this kind of teams.

The current Chicago Bulls team is actually playing better this days than last week but an idea keep playing around on my head: had this core of players give everything they, as a group, had to give? Did John Paxon miss the opportunity of building an eventual champion? I’m not only thinking this because of the current position on the standings let’s look back at the building of some of the past champions (I must get something out of the way; I’m not saying that this is a blue print to build a champion they are just examples to make my point).

• Back in 1988 the Bulls had a nice young team featuring on the best rebounders in the league, Charles Oakley. They traded him to get a defensive oriented center that was also a veteran voice in the locker room. Michael Jordan and Bill Cartwright won 3 titles together in the next 5 years.

• In 1999 the L.A. Lakers, lead by Shaquille O’neal, were coming from two nice playoffs appearances were they lost to the Utah Jazz. One could say they time was about to come but Jerry West thought different as he traded their best defensive swingman and second leader scorer, Eddie Jones, to the Charlotte Hornets for Glen Rice. The following year the L.A. Lakers won the first title in 12 years.

• In 1995 the Houston Rockets were the defending champions but they weren’t playing at a “championship level”. For some people a change was imminent and that change became Clyde Drexler. He was acquire in exchange for staring power forward Otis Thorpe. The trade didn’t exactly shoot Houston to contention but helped Hakeem get his back to back title against much better teams like Utah, San Antonio and Phoenix.

• You want a more dramatic example; look at the moves Pat Riley made 3 years ago to create a championship team in Miami. I know they are crappy now and they won thank in mayor part to the”DWade Free throw Parade” but they are the ones wearing the jewelry.

In the past two seasons almost every Bulls’ players have been involve in a trade rumor to get a player from Kevin Garnett to Pau Gasol to Kobe Bryant but John Paxson never pulled the trigger, he never saw a fair trade he never bumped into a trade that, according to him, would increase the team chances to become champions. And he stuck with this team and I think he ride this team for all it could offer. This core of players have reached a point were they are not clicking anymore they are not responding to Skiles’ screaming and mind games.

Since two seasons ago until this past off-season the Bulls and the T’wolves were talking trade. New reports, and facts, points to that Chicago never had a chance to get Garnett. McHale, on all his wisdom, rejected every package Chicago offered. Let’s say this wasn’t Paxson fault. The Kobe saga still very recent so we all know why that trade hasn’t happened and probably'll never happen. Kobe wants to play in a Bulls team that also features Luol Deng and the Lakers want’s Deng in exchange for Kobe. This wasn’t Paxson fault neither.

The leaves us with the Pau Gasol scenario. January of this current year was passing by us when the talks heated up between the Grizzlies and the Bulls, The Grizzlies were asking for a package of Tyrus Thomas, the contract of PJ Brown, New York's draft pick and someone from the Deng-Gordon-Hinrich core. You can add two more contracts in each side to make numbers match. Worst case scenario Chicago'd had to give Deng as the centerpiece of the trade.You can argue he's going to be a 25 ppg scorer in the near future but if you are paying like 17 millon dollars per year to Ben Wallace for the next 4 years ( 2 of them good ) you might wanna try to win now so adquiring a actual 20/10 post presence makes sense, right?. It wasn't like the Bulls were given the entire roster for Gasol, Hinrich, Gordon, Nocioni, Wallace, they all'd have been there. I seriously think this is were Paxson lost it all.

There's also the Chandler vrs Wallace issue. I supported Paxton because of:

1. PJ Brown contract was adquired to be part of a trade package to get either Garnett or Gasol.
2. Chandler wasn't goint to develop under Skiles tenure. Someone had to go and they needed point A, besides Skiles approach was still working. I don't think Paxson is savyy enought to see this coming
   
3. I thought that the Ben Wallace signinng was a good thing. I know he's way older and I don't know how many times more expensive than Chandler but he brings experience and a championship ring to the table. This is where things get bad, Wallace hasn't been the leader on the court at least not regularly and he hasn't been that veteran voice in the locker room neither.

When the last trade deadline came and went I knew Paxson blew it. Fine, they didn't get Garnett nor Gasol but he needed to so something with PJ Brown contract. Something! Anything! As everything come out Chicago traded Chandler ( a defensive monster ) for anything and that's no way to build a champion